Summers Predicts there will be Three or Four Major Depressions in your Life Time, and many other crises in between
Looking back, one would be able to compare today how things to come were according to Larry Summers just six months ago:
April 24 (Bloomberg) — Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, spoke on April 24, 2009, at the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, and gave his interpretation of the crisis, the policy response, and its results so far, and the opportunities he sees. (Bloomberg video: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5RrzLNmM8jw).
Given that the political landscape of United States and most other countries is guided by the same principles and concepts of conventional economic wisdom, and there are no alternative economic theory afoot with any kind of political clout as to bring about any major changes to the conventional system (some drumming in the distance, but a long way off), it would be wise to use his “predictions” as personal and corporate guidelines in planning one’s business and life.
As one of the most important components of the economy, He sees what he calls a self-equilibrating system, regulated by supply and demand, as one of the major components of economics, which is right the vast majority of the time; but that it will fail three to four times in a century. He repeats the concept a couple of times, and gives it as the reason Keynes wrote his “General Theory” of economics.
Translated into personal terms, every citizen is at risk of getting caught two to three times in his life, as a victim to these depressions. Thus, it is appropriate and prudent, as a normal course of living and planning for one’s future that one should take them into consideration in personal and business plans; and include in these plans the preceding and succeeding years.
At a point in his speech, he states that these problems will not be solved overnight, as they were not created overnight. Let’s add a conservative two years in front of the Depression and another two years after. So, 15 years of anyone’s life is likely to be tied up in surviving depressions. But that’s not all.
Towards the end of the speech, about revisiting a regulatory system which at least in “certain respects has been a failure,” he mentioned the 1987 crisis-S&L debacle, the commercial real estate problems of the early 90’s, the Mexican crisis, Asian Crisis, LTCM crisis, the technology bubble, the event at Enron, and the current crisis, and states says these are too many for a 20 year period “for the lives of hundreds of thousand to have been wrenched and disrupted by the workings of a financial system in which they had no important role.”
What are the chances of getting caught in any one of these crises, which, whether major or minor crisis, translate for the average individual a loss of income, or equity? I’m talked to people who got caught and lost in one or more of these crises. One person lost $37,000 with the S&L debacle; $150,000 in commissions during the commercial real estate problems of the early 90’s; lost job and income during the technology bubble; and finally with some 60% periods of unemployment after the technology bubble burst. These losses do not include indirect fall-out, such as cost of retraining, or changing careers, and so on.
In the most stringent interpretation of American Values, my friend brought it all upon himself, because he should have seen it all coming, and would have been prepared for it. Most of us, however, would be more generous and focus on the notion that government exist to protect the individuals against internal or external assault and crimes that reduces and threatens his person, property, and other civil and social rights. Regardless of how it’s worded in the law, it is a crime to deprive or otherwise confiscate an individual’s property and wealth, property, and other freedoms or rights.
However, crime against the citizenry is now institutionalized and seen as a normal operating mode. Therefore, a prudent citizen today has to plan his own protection against these assaults, one of which are the fact that he will encounter at least 2 major depressions, and one or two “minor” ones in between them during his working adult life. That adds up to some 60% of the working adult’s life struggling from one crisis to the next.
You can’t blame people for not paying attention to those who end up suffering during these crises. After all, it’s a small percentage of the population, and the rest have more than enough to do trying to themselves stay afloat. Out of 300 millions American, one or two million people whose financial life has been destroyed, is not, statistically, such a bad thing, is it? Financial death can’t be compared to murder, can it? Not to mentions real loss of life due to the inability to finance ones life through healthcare and other life support resources. On top of all that: if they failed in their personal responsibility and planning, they paid the price for their failure.
Mr. Summers then sums up the problem with economics: “Periodically at the end of period of financial excess, the economies are pushed into a territory where its self sustaining properties cannot be relied upon. Therefore the policy has to counteract the vicious cycles, into a circle, and replace fear with confidence.”
He slides by some of the key sources of the problems, but details some of the fallout, such as credit crunch, housing, unemployment, production. In essence he wants to give us the impression that the on-going recession/depression is a natural economic phenomenon, and his solutions, the ONLY alternative he sees.
He sees no viable alternative to a strategy of seeking to maintain demand, provide funding to market, strengthen financial intermediaries, contain vicious cycles in the housing market, and support the flow of credit. He asserts that there is the critical need to support the financial intermediary functions, assuring financial intermediaries are adequately capitalized with the views inherent in the current situation, which is an objective of the stress test.
In simple terms, what he told us in April are in full fruition in August and will continue as this Administration’s tack for the rest of the term: Give the lion’s share of government financing to the financial communities, and the wealth will trickle down to the economy. An interesting turn of words caught my attention in his remarks, when he used the term “intermediaries,” as if the economy could not function without intermediaries.
When he discussed “results” he used the word “mixed” and mentioned that production is running at a level significantly below shipment portending an upwards movement from the operation of the inventory cycle; hardly basis for optimism, but some bit of respite from pessimism. By August 4, 2009, in his “Memorandum” to Congress on the Status Report on Rescuing and Rebuilding the American Economy, several glaring holes become visible:
These points are:
- “Importantly, the Recovery Act will gain momentum over time, peaking during 2010 with about 70 percent of the total stimulus provided in the first 18 months. Five and a half months after the passage, we are on track to meet that timeline.”
To the casual observer, in reading news, and other media, the Affordable Home Financing program appears to be one of greatest activity. It is projected to satisfy all applicants by the end of five years. Other programs in the Recovery Act, much as the Housing one, are siphoned through “intermediaries” (read: financial community, banks). These legislations involve much regulation to be issued by the various secretaries to detail implementation and establishing tight qualification requirements. Take the Affordable House program: The legislation itself is a wonderful piece of PR, but the essence of its application is contained in the Secretary’s guidelines, which in 17 pages of details ensure that a servicer (read: financial institution, bank, et al.) will not only not lose anything from the existing contract, but will be further rewarded at the end, with packing into a balloon payment at the time of the sale of the home, practically every concession made. (The effect is pushing the same housing bubble into repeating again in five or so years.) Add to that a predominance at interpreting what is interpretable in the banks favor, for example, the guidelines require that the services escrows real estate taxes and insurance payments, they are adding this onto the monthly payments of the “modified loan” rendering the monthly payment higher than before in instances.
Under the $75 billion program, called Making Home Affordable, lenders are eligible for taxpayer subsidies to lower the mortgage payments of distressed borrowers. Of the top 25 participants in the program, at least 21 specialized in servicing or originating subprime loans, according to the center, a nonprofit investigative reporting group funded largely by charitable foundations. (There is more; you should read in detail).
In Summary, since the Administration’s whole policy view is toward the protection of the intermediaries, and since the intermediaries have shown a great deal of reticence in cooperating in making any concessions, or even comply with the law, and the administration is unable, unwilling or slow in enforcing or getting compliance, the various other programs in the Recovery Act, can be expected to parallel the Home Affordable program.
- “The positive stock market performance since earlier this year is helping to restore substantial losses in household wealth. For example, since the stock market bottomed out on March 9, 2009, the typical 401(k) account is up about 30%.”
This means if you had a 401(k) of 10,000, and as most people lost around 80% as a result of the collapse, you ended up with $2,000. Now with the 30% jump, you have achieved a modest recovery of $600. Now that’s progress!
Consider further, however, that what’s traded in the financial and stock markets represent real wealth in the real economy. Has there been a 30% rebound of real production, and new employment that produced the increase in the stock values? Hardly! It’s all the government guarantees and TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) money, and free money and concessions to the intermediaries with which the just re-inflated the stock markets. No real gain of wealth; just larger numbers for the same wealth.
- “• After GDP plummeted at a -6.4% rate in the first quarter, the economy’s pace of contraction slowed markedly in the second quarter. Private forecasters have estimated that the Recovery Act added more than 3 percentage points to second quarter GDP.”
The first quarter GDP for 2009 is barely finalized, and the second Quarter can only be estimated or extrapolated. But understanding the flow of cash, over the last six months, just paying attention to what happens around us, without looking at official statistics, we know a number of things: Big or bigger government expenditures. These enlarge the GDP; big money for the financial community. Some have already surprisingly reported profits. While the GDP doesn’t contain the value of the assets traded in the markets, they do contain the income inured therein. With all the TARP money and other guarantees given to the financial community by the Fed and the government, there has been plenty of money to re-start big trading in the financial markets. In fact, some of the big boys have reported to expect large profits for the recent quarters.
Mr. Summers alluded at the fact that our financial system has changed to where savings and deposits represent about 20% as a source of liquidity to the markets. A more significant element is the process of securitization which makes up the 80% or so. A quick and dirty way of understanding that is: a) Bank makes loans, gets a contract which expects certain income. b) Bank packages these loans, in a way that they can be sold to other financial institutions which will sell them in the financial markets, all over the world. C) Bank will receive new cash for that contract, and now has more to lend. This multiplies the liquidity almost ad infinitum.
There are other facilities given brokerage firms and other financial institutions where they can accept almost any type of asset, and give out cash in return. The Fed has also become a buyer of these assets as well. These processes give rise to huge sources of liquidity which has predominantly added liquidity to the financial markets, and considering the speed of liquidity increase, spurred the bubble. When there are no more real assets upon which to base new liquidity, then, they can take any financial assets, and create liquidity with that by securitizing that; selling new securitized assets, which can again be bundled and securitized into new assets, then sold, which can be again bundled and securitized into new assets, then sold, which can again be… you get the point; endlessly inflating the financial markets into bigger and bigger “wealth” which in the end won’t buy a slice of bread.
Another point Summers touched upon was “leveraging” followed by quick de-leveraging, as things that caused the present financial crisis. When we talk about leveraging, we are talking about increasing the control power of money, where a fraction of an asset value in cash will suffice to buy it, and control it.
One more element worth mentioning is High Frequency Trading (HFT), which is not new, the use of which has advanced more and more over the last ten years. Computer trading with various pre-set parameters, using various clever algorithms can buy in microseconds; be held for a few minutes, and resold at a profit. This process has the effect of increasing available liquidity for trading, which means more trading using the same money with resulting higher and higher income. It has been said that some 70% of trading in the financial markets is HFT.
All these practices represent multipliers to the money supply. Consequently they increase the income in the financial markets and financial communities, bringing the GDP higher. At the peak of the bubble the financial community represented about 40% of the GDP. Now, with the huge sums given to them, they have and can create enough liquidity to rev up trading to suggest an upswing in national production, and the illusion of new wealth.
Wealth is real products, and the ability to acquire them. 401 (k) will some day be converted back to cash, and the owners will use it to buy physical good, and pay for services in the real world, the real economy. Will they be able to buy a loaf of bread? Not if real products are not produced, no matter how large the figure they take out. So far, nothing, absolutely nothing has been done to open companies back up, and put people back to work.
On the other hand, in the super-casino of the nation, the game is for power over wealth and resources, not with the desire or need to acquire them for their own use, or for the common good, but for the right to control them. What will they control when there’s nothing being produced?
The undeniable flaw of a debt based, (except, technically, HFT’s) i.e.: loans which sooner or later must be retired, or rolled over, makes for unavoidable defaults, which will periodically have to collapse, and allow the cycle to start again, with one important effect: wealth has been again shifted from the lower 90% of the population to the top 1%, which are already holding or controlling 80% or more of the wealth.
So far, no problems have been solved. We’ve thrown billions to refill the casino, so they could keep on gambling. We can expect yet another bubble, and no doubt the next leg of the crash.
In the Baseline Scenario, a blog of professional economists, Simon Johnson presents some poignant comments, his evaluation of Summer’s, visible in the Administration’s actions: http://baselinescenario.com/2009/04/27/larry-summers-new-model/ and http://baselinescenario.com/2009/07/24/after-peak-finance-larry-summers-bubble/.
This quote from Howard Zinn, from ‘A People’s History of the United States,’ first published 1981, is very appropriate to allow one to predict how if unchanged, the social fabric will rend under the weight of so much moral decay:
“The American system is the most ingenious system of control in world history. With a country so rich in natural resources, talent, and labor power the system can afford to distribute just enough wealth to just enough people to limit discontent to a troublesome minority. It is a country so powerful, so big, so pleasing to so many of its’ citizens that it can afford to give freedom of dissent to the small number who are not pleased. There is no system of control with more openings, apertures, flexibilities, rewards for the chosen.
There is none that disperses its’ control more complexly through the voting system, the work situation, the church, the family, the school, the mass media & none more successful in mollifying opposition with reforms, isolating people from one another, creating patriotic loyalty.”
The causes and flaws in the system that caused the collapse are many and interwoven, to where problems exacerbated the others mutually. As it has been often said, we can’t run the same experiment over and over and expect different results.
October 3rd, 2009 by NickP | No Comments »